Republican vs. Democratic Presidencies in 2025: What Are Likely Climate Outcomes?

Here we go, dear readers, it's time to look ahead to the election. First, let's establish how we're going to talk about this topic. Extinction Rebellion has four Demands that govern the actions we take as a community, agreed upon by the chapters of the United States and continually re-evaluated. The Demands are:

1. Tell the Truth. The government must tell the truth by declaring a climate and ecological emergency, working with other institutions to communicate the urgency for change.
   
2. Act Now. The government must take immediate action to halt biodiversity loss and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2030.
   
3. Beyond Politics. The government must create and be led by the decisions of a Citizens' Assembly on climate and ecological justice.
   
4. Just Transition. There must be a just transition that prioritizes the most vulnerable people and establishes indigenous sovereignty and remediation led by and for communities suffering environmental injustice.

Before we talk in depth about any presidential election outcome, we need to address the Beyond Politics demand. Extinction Rebellion does not affiliate with any political party and we do not support specific candidates. As individuals, our members can support whoever they believe in, but as an organization we cannot offer endorsement. The foundational premise of “Beyond Politics” is that our current governmental system is working as designed, and it is designed to uphold a status quo that is killing us all. This system cannot be fixed by small measures, or even by large ones. We need a new system, and to advocate for this we cannot participate extensively in the long-past-expiration one.

HOWEVER!

We acknowledge that most of us live in the United States of America, and this is an election year! You will likely be asked a lot of questions about the potential presidencies of either major candidate as they relate to the climate crisis, and it’s better to be prepared with answers than to be caught off guard. For the purposes of this article, we're looking at the two major parties in our country and answering a few frequently asked questions.

How does Project 2025 relate to Climate Change?

Listen, we also don't like that we need to address this topic. Project 2025 is a multi-pronged initiative spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation that includes a detailed blueprint for the next Republican president to usher in a sweeping overhaul of the executive branch. It specifically promotes dismantling climate and scientific initiatives.

Borrowed from this CBS article, “The agenda takes aim at longstanding federal agencies, like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA. The agency is a component of the Commerce Department and the policy guide calls for it to be downsized. NOAA's six offices, including the National Weather Service and National Marine Fisheries Service, ‘form a colossal operation that has become one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to future U.S. prosperity,’ the guide states.” We at the XR newsletter know the NOAA as the country’s most effective source of information about incoming hurricanes.

In case you aren’t familiar with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, its mission is states as “1. To understand and predict changes in climate, weather, ocean and coasts; 2. To share that knowledge and information with others; and 3. To conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources.” This should not be a scary mission to leadership with good intentions.

The bottom line: Project 2025 wants to stop climate research and silence those who take a stand for it. According to this American Progress article, “Project 2025 would repeal IRA tax credits, weaken the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) regulatory authority, and lower or eliminate existing emissions standards. The playbook also recommends easing environmental permitting restrictions for new fossil fuel projects.” If the nation sees a Republican presidency, the prevailing attitude will likely shift in favor of climate denial without serious pressure from our movement. Will a Republican presidency follow the 2025 doctrine? Who knows. However, it was written and promoted by two former Trump staffers.

What could a Harris presidency mean for the climate?

When faced with the bleak possibility of a Project 2025-led presidency, it’s easy to convince ourselves that anyone more climate friendly would be a savior. There is a great deal of speculation of what climate policy will look like during a Harris presidency. Will she continue the legacy of the Biden administration or will she bring carbon levels down to mitigate the climate crisis? During the Biden presidency, global carbon emissions have continued to grow. As a result, smoke from wildfires are widely threatening air quality throughout the US. However, the catastrophic fires are rarely reported in the media even though they are destroying thousands of acres of wildlife habitat and rendering people homeless.

At the time of this writing, the Harris campaign has yet to release a climate plan. According to this CBS article, “The Democratic Party devoted seven pages of its 90-page 2024 platform to climate policy, offering a few clues about what Vice President Kamala Harris could do to combat climate change if she wins the presidency.”

In reference to the fossil fuel industry, the Democratic Party says it will "eliminate tens of billions of dollars" in oil and gas subsidies, fight price-gouging, and increase protections against drilling and mining in the Arctic. However, under Biden’s presidency, fossil fuel jobs have grown more quickly than clean energy jobs, and U.S. oil production has hit record highs, according to reporting by Reuters that tracked his record on fossil fuels. Harris has not yet released specific energy policy plans, but her campaign has said that she will not ban fracking if she is elected president.

In case you’re hoping for the smartly-marketed “folk hero” Vice President candidate Tim Walz to champion the climate, remember that Walz pushed through the disastrous Line 3 Pipeline in Minnesota and leaned into state-sponsored violence and oppression against both climate protestors and human rights protestors following the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis Police. We recommend this excellent article from Counterpunch for a more in-depth history of Walz’s problematic relationship with activists.

In keeping with the goals of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Democratic Party’s platform calls for investment in clean energy, such as solar and offshore wind, and the electrical grid, with a focus on delivering these technologies to the communities most impacted by climate change. Although the Inflation Reduction Act provides for discounted solar panels and heat pumps for privileged people, these emission reductions fade quickly when we look at the current administration programs such as:

• The 3.3 billion airport expansion. This program provides for exponential growth of private jets owned by wealthy people. Private jets already provide a substantial amount of carbon emissions. In the meantime, the Amtrak system is deteriorating.
• The Biden initiative to construct LNG terminals in the US.
• Biden's approval of vast amount of oil leases.
  
  A Princeton University study last year estimated the Inflation Reduction Act could make a significant dent in curbing emissions, but would still fall short of the nation's 2030 climate goals.
  
  

What does this all mean?

In short, the Democratic Party’s plan is grossly insufficient and the Republican Party’s plan is an acceleration into disaster. We do not currently have a clear path to a climate-forward presidency. With a Harris presidency, it’s likely that the societal conversations will still acknowledge the climate crisis as truth, even though national policy likely won’t keep up with reality. According to this Brookings article, a Trump presidency, even if Project 2025 isn’t supported, will be marked by “a robust emphasis on fossil fuels, extensive regulatory rollbacks, and a scaling back of renewable energy policies.”

What can we do to demand climate action from our government?

Because it seems unlikely that federal policy will support large-scale shift in the fossil fuel industry, which is the first real step toward climate crisis mitigation, it may be most effective to shift our focus to the state-level administration. While Harris has never claimed to be particularly interested in the climate, and Trump has blatantly disregarded it, Governor Maura Healey campaigned on a climate platform, which gives us more leverage to demand action.

XR Boston will always encourage non-violent civil disobedience as a response to the climate injustices around us. Civil disobedience does not always lead to arrest! If you want to prepare for these kinds of actions, we recommend that you participate in an upcoming non-violent direct action training. If you are feeling helpless about the election cycle but aren't ready for civil disobedience, we encourage you to join our 2024 Week of Rebellion from September 22 through 28. We’ll have events ranging from a bike ride for a car-free future, to a teach-in with activists and scientists, to a rally/dance party/die-in. All events are risk-free and family friendly, and can help you connect with other concerned and active members of the community.